FALLIN HOLDS COMMANDING LEAD, HIGH POSITIVES ENTERING LAST WEEKEND OF RUNOFF CAMPAIGN

Mayor Cornett Well-Regarded But Trails Popular Lieutenant-Governor 

The Republican congressional primary campaign enters its last five days with Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin enjoying a commanding lead.  The exclusive TVPoll.com survey conducted for KWTV-News 9 shows Ms. Fallin with a 54.6% to 30.3% lead over Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett.  The poll has a response size of 1,561 and a margin of error of +/-2.47 points.

Fallin’s support is strong entering the runoff.  Of the 1,561 respondents to the poll, 41.6% said they were “definitely voting for” Fallin and another 13.0% said they would “probably” vote for Fallin. Mayor Mick Cornett had “definitely voting for” from 20.2% of the respondents and “probably voting for” from another 10.1%.  (Items 6a & 6b)

Among the 15.1% of undecided voters, when we probed for who they leaned towards, just over half said Ms. Fallin while a bit under a third said Mr. Cornett.  Just over one in five undecided voters (2.9% of all respondents) persisted in being truly undecided.  (Item 6c)

Voters were asked about their evaluation of the respective candidates.  Both candidates are well-regarded by likely primary voters. Ms. Fallin has a 49.4% very favorable rating and a 34.6% somewhat favorable rating for an overall favorable rating of 84.0%, compared to just a 14.8% unfavorable rating.  Mr Cornett has a 29.7% strongly favorable and a 44.0% somewhat favorable for an overall favorable of 73.7%, compared to just a 23.7% unfavorable rating (below). 

Respondents were queried about which of five campaign issues they considered MOST IMPORTANT in deciding who to vote for:

National Security                                  38.0%
Immigration reform                               23.8%
Defending Traditional Values                 17.3%
Personal Character of Candidate           14.0%
Job creation                                          6.9%

Respondents were then asked to indicate which type of candidate they are looking for when they vote, regardless of who they intend to vote for:

Prior executive and legislative experience           45.6%
            Outsider, not a career politician             24.5%
            Not sure                                               29.9%

When we probe into the support for the respective candidates, some interesting patterns emerge: 

RESPONDENT SEX
Among Women, Mary Fallin commands 58.4% of the Definite and Probable vote to 26.6% for Mick Cornett (n = 799, margin of error = +/- 3.46 points), while Men polled 50.5% Definite and Probable for Mary Fallin and 34.0% Definite and Probable for Mick Cornett (n = 762, margin of error = +/- 3.54 points).  Fallin has an almost 32 point lead among women and 16 point lead among men.  Undecided respondents who were willing to offer a preference when  probed had similar preferences for Fallin over Cornett.

RESPONDENT AGE
Among respondents over the age of 50, Fallin leads Cornett by a 57.8% to 26.9% margin (n = 1034, margin of error = +/-3.04 points) while her lead among respondents under 50 is just 48.1% to 36.9% (n = 528, margin of error = +/-4.26 points).  The proportion of undecided voters is roughly the same in both age groups, but two-thirds of the undecided vote comes from people over 50. 

LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE
Our survey methodology pulls a sample from registered voters and includes the vote history of the voter.  Using this information, we can identify the highest-likelihood voters for analysis. Among the highest-ranked voters, those who are most certain to turn out for the primary, Fallin leads Cornett by 68.8% to 17.3% (n = 135, margin of error = +/-8.43).  These respondents made up 8.6% of the survey sample. 

Voters who scored in the next-highest group of highly-certain voters, 17.4% of all respondents, Fallin leads Cornett by 56.1% to 29.5% (n = 271, margin of error = +/-5.95). 

The third, and largest group of likely voters,  48.3% of all respondents, Fallin leads Cornett by 55.4% to 29.6% (n = 753, margin of error = +/-3.56).

Cornett runs strongest among the last group of likely voters, who traditionally score as likely voters for a primary but are usually viewed as less certain for the runoff.  But, even among this last quarter (25.7%) of the respondents, Fallin leads Cornett 47.2% to 36.3% (n = 402, margin of error = +/-4.88). 

ISSUES (% Definite + %Probable):
Among voters who placed National Security as their top issue, Mary Fallin polls 56.8% of the vote to 29.5% for Mick Cornett (n = 594, margin of error = +/- 4.01 points). 

Among voters who placed Immigration Reform as their top issue, Mary Fallin polls 54.2% of the vote to 33.5% for Mick Cornett (n = 371, margin of error = +/- 5.08 points).

Among voters who placed Defending Traditional Values as their top issue, Mary Fallin polls 58.5% of the vote to 24.4% for Mick Cornett (n = 270, margin of error = +/- 5.96 points).

Among voters who placed Personal Character of the Candidate as their top issue, Mary Fallin polls 49.8% of the vote to 31.1% for Mick Cornett (n = 219, margin of error = +/- 6.62 points).

Among voters who placed Job Creation as their top issue, Mary Fallin polls 44.8% of the vote to 39.0% for Mick Cornett (n = 105, margin of error = +/- 9.56 points).
 

FAVORABILITY RATING
First, we should note that despite some pretensions towards negative campaigning in the primary, both candidates have come away with very strong positives.   

Both candidates strongly dominate among both their most favorable evaluators and among those who most strongly disapprove of their opponent.  Most of the undecided vote is among those with only somewhat favorable or unfavorable opinions, and about a quarter of the vote is among people who have no strong like or dislike toward either candidate.

Of the voters surveyed, 345 had only a somewhat positive or somewhat negative pinion of both candidates.  This subset is the most interesting, because it is the most divided.  Of the 345 who are ambivalent about both candidates, 39.1% will probably vote for Fallin, 33.0% will probably vote for Cornett, and 43.7% are undecided (margin of error = +/-5.27%).  The number of malleable undecided voters is probably not sufficiently large to overhaul the Fallin candidacy with this short of time left in the campaign. Only an exceptional and highly publicized event that would change the assessment of even core Fallin support can diminish her advantage in support  

THE BOTTOM LINE
Mary Fallin has continued to trade on her very powerful favorable perception and connected with voters on issues of importance to them.  The greater the likelihood a voter is to vote, the more likely they are to be a Fallin supporter.  Fallin is stronger among Women than Men, among older voters than younger voters. The number of malleable undecided voters is probably not sufficiently large to overhaul the Fallin candidacy with this short of time left in the campaign. Only an exceptional and highly publicized event that would change the assessment of even core Fallin support can diminish her advantage in support.