Below are the results of the October 12-13 2006 poll of Oklahoma voters conducted for KWTV-9 (CBS) by TvPoll.com.  The sample is of 1,260 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.61 percent at 95% confidence. The instrument, toplines, and complete crosstabs are linked at the bottom of this post.

Executive approval

President Bush continues to enjoy solid job approval among Oklahoma voters.  Bush’s overall approval rating is 56.8%, slightly off from the 57.6% recorded last week. Bush approval rating at the end of September was 61.9%.  Bush’s strong approval is 35.1%, up somewhat from a week ago.  And his strongly-disapprove number holds steady from a week ago at 28%.

Bush’s approval rating far stronger among Republicans (83.7% overall approve, 53.2% strongly approve) than Democrats (63.9% disapprove, 45.6% strongly disapprove); stronger among Conservative (80.8% overall approval, 56.6% strongly so) than Moderates (55.6% disapprove, 43.9% approve) or Liberals (21.3% approve, 77.1% disapprove, 70.2% strongly disapprove); and while Bush enjoys general approval regardless of whether a respondent went to church or not, it was among most frequent church goers that the President enjoys his strongest approval (71% overall, 49.1% strongly approve).

The sex of the respondent did not appreciably differentiate approval or disapproval of the President.  

Governor Brad Henry’s approval rating continues at an almost unbelievable 78.4%, and his strongly approve continues to hover close to a majority at 48.3%.  Henry’s overall approval for the past two TvPoll’s were 75.5% a week ago and 72% at the end of September.  The “strongly disapprove” number for Henry’s job performance is only 7.3%, and his overall disapproval number is 20%.   

Party structures the Governor’s approval, but only barely so.  Henry has an 88.1% approval rating among Democrats (63.4% strongly) and a 68.2% approval among Republicans (31.2% strongly) and a 72.6% approval among Independents (45.2% strongly).

Henry has an astronomical 90.7% approval rating among Liberals (73.8% strongly approve), an 86.3% approval rating among Moderates (54.4% strongly approve), and a 66.3% approval among Conservatives (34.1% strongly approve).  Henry’s “strongly approve” among conservatives is higher than his “overall disapprove” among those voters (31.2%). That Henry has an approval rating among the most frequent church goers at 65.3% is doubtlessly contributing to his success among conservatives in general.

Henry’s approval rating is not differentiated by sex or age, though he does enjoy his highest rating among the elderly, at 81.9% (54.1% strongly approve). 

“Most Important Problem”
Oklahomans are divided regarding what they view as the most important problem confronting the state.  Economic, social, and moral issues all command the first attention of about a quarter of the electorate, while domestic issues trailed with about one-in-six Oklahomans expressing greatest concern.

Democrats named Social Issues most often (31.8%) followed by economic issues (26.7%) and then moral issues (20.5%) while Republicans named moral issues first (28.1%) followed by economic issues (27.5%) and then social issues (21.0%).  

Men most often picked economic issues (30.4%) and scattered on the other choices, while women most often picked social issues (31.6%), followed by moral issues (25.6%) and then economic issues (23.5%).  

Liberals and Moderates both most often picked socials issues (47.3% and 34.6% respectively) followed by economic issues (33.6% and 25.9% respectively) while Conservatives most often picked moral issues (36%) followed by economic issues (26.6%).  

State of the State
Voters most often fragment in this fashion when there are no overarching problems confronting their state or economy.  The reality of tax cuts, low unemployment, low cost of living, and increases in government services have voters generally happy with Governor Henry, and the collapse of gas prices back below the $2 level have likely dissipated economic concerns for the present.  As a result, Oklahomans, when asked whether the state is headed in the right direction, offered a widespread but cautious “yes.”  A quarter of Oklahoma voters think the state is definitely headed in the right direction, while another half of them said things are “probably” headed in the right direction in the Sooner State. Only 6% said the state is “definitely” headed in the wrong direction.

Among Democrats, 81.3% said the state was headed in the right direction, 31.4% saying it was “definitely” doing so, while republicans were more cautious, with 70% overall saying the state was headed in the right direction, but just 18.1% saying “definitely” so.  Moderates were the most approving of the direction of the state (82.7% “right direction,” 25.9% “definitely” so), while Liberals were more intense in their approval (79.4% overall “right direction,”  35.9% “definitely” so), while Conservatives were somewhat less enthusiastic (67% right direction, 19.9% “definitely” so). Except for most frequent church goers (67.1% “right direction,” 19.9% “definitely”), all at least three in four Oklahomans assessed the direction of the state as generally in the right direction. Women and men were undifferentiated in their assessment of how things are going in general. 

Cautious optimist also extended to the state economy in particular.  While only 6.2% of voters rated the state economy “excellent,” a near majority – 48.7% -- said it was “good” and another 37.4% rated the economy of the state “poor.” 

Republicans and Democrats rated the economy similarly good -- 57.2% and 54.9% respectively rating it good or excellent.  Exactly 60% of men but just 50.3% of women rated the economy good or excellent, and one-third more women than men rated the economy only “fair.” Ideology and church attendance did little to distinguish evaluations of economic performance in the state.  

Young responders (under 35) generally rated the economy only “fair” (44.6%) and just 46.4% rated it “good” or “excellent.”  By contrast, 31.8% of elder voters (over 65) rated the economy “fair” while 63.3% rated it “good” or “excellent.”

Looking to the future, most people expect more of the same – 57.4% expect the economy to remain unchanged a year from now, while those who expect things to get better outnumbered those who expect things to get worse by 3:2 margin (23.5% better, 16.2% worse).   

Party, sex, and age group did not differentiate the optimism of voters, but Liberals and Moderates were more optimistic than Conservatives about the prospects for economic improvement in Oklahoma next year.  This difference was reflected in Church attendance, with the most frequent church-goers being the most pessimistic about the state economy’s future.

Part of the perception of the direction of the state is tied to personal economics.  Nearly equal proportions of Oklahomans responded that their family financial situation was better or worse compared to a year ago – 23.9% better, 23.8% worse – while the majority – 52.3% -- said things were about the same. 

While Democrats (50.2%), Republicans (55.4%), and Independents (47.6%) all generally reported unchanged family financial circumstances compared to a year ago,  more Democrats reported being worse off (27.5%) than better off (22.4%) while more Republicans reported being better off (27.2%)  rather than worse off (17.4%) compared to a year ago. 

A majority of women and men reported generally unchanged family financial circumstances,  but men more often reported things going better (27.2%) than not (22.7%) while some reported things generally being worse (24.6%) than better (21.0%). 

Liberals least often reported no change in family finances from a year ago (41.2%) but they also reported the most gains (31.3%) and also most foten reported being worse off (27.5%); Moderates more often reported being worse off (26.1%) than better off (24.7%); and Conservatives more often reported being better off (22.3%) than worse off (19.9%).  Overall, 80.2% of Conservatives reported family finances that were the same or better, while  72% of Liberals reported the same or better circumstances.

The hardest hit group in the population were those between 35 and 50, the backbone of the economy and the working class. Of this group, only 43.5% reported unchanged circumstances while 32% reported being worse off.  Only voters under the age of 35 were more likely to say their family finances had more foten improved (30.4%) than not (21.0%).  

Budget Surplus
The past two legislative sessions, lawmakers have been able to work with the governor to expand government, fill the rainy day fund, and also cut taxes.  When we put it to voters how we should dispose of our continuing budgetary surpluses arising mainly from taxes related to increased energy revenues, only 7.4% of Oklahomans wanted further increase state government spending on programs and priorities from the legislature.  The plurality – 32.3% said surpluses should be rebated to the taxpayers, 22.2% said the money should be invested in the Rainy Day Fund, and three in ten (30.4%) said to split the difference, giving some money back in tax rebates, with some money to be saved against an economic downturn. 

Who is Better on Spending?
Oklahoma voters split on their perception about which party was better at controlling government spending.  37.8% of responders said the Democrats, 36.2% said the Republicans, and 18.9% said both parties were pretty good.  However, a closer look reveals that among Democratic respondents, 63.8% picked Democrats as better on spending, while among Republicans the number was similar, with 65% of Republican responders saying Republicans were better on spending issues. 

The 65% Solution
While it didn’t make it onto the ballot, the 65% Education Solution was considered to be almost universally important, with 75.8% of voters rating it “very important” and another 14.7% rating it somewhat important.   

Immigrant Tuition
The policy of providing tuition assistance to illegal immigrant children is almost universally not supported, with 89% of all respondents indicating they did not support the state policy.

Gaming and the Lottery
Expansion of Indian Gaming is generally not approved of by respondents to our most recent poll. 32% of responders “strongly disapproved,” and another 19.7% “somewhat disapproved” for an overall disapproval of 51.7%.  Overall approval is 44.1%, with 19.1% strongly approving of the expansion of gaming.   

The lottery does much better, with an overall 64.2% approval of the lottery and a 38.7% strongly approve.  About one-in-four voters (24%) strongly disapproved of the lottery and another 10.5% somewhat disapproved of the lottery.

The lottery issue and the expansion of Indian gaming are generally joined, with two-thirds of lottery approvers also approving of casino gaming expansion and over 90% of lottery disapprovers also disapproving of the expansion of Indian gaming.   

Party differences exist on gaming.  A majority (52.1%) of Democrats approve of the expansion of Indian gaming, while only 34% of Republicans approve.    62% of Liberals approve, but just 31% of Conservatives, and almost a majority of Conservatives strongly disapprove (47.8%).  The intensity of disapproval of Indian gaming comes from the most-frequent church-goers, who disapprove of expanded gaming by a 74-23 margin. No age group approves of expanded Indian gaming, but the most intense disapproval is registered by voters over the age of 65 (59.9% disapprove).  

Party differences exist on lottery too, but overall a solid majority (74.3%) of Democrats but just 50% of Republicans approve.    82.4% of Liberals approve, but just 45.8% of Conservatives, while 41.1% of Conservatives strongly disapprove.  Moderates are on board with Liberals – 77.1% approve of Lottery. Intensity of disapproval of lottery again comes from the most-frequent church-goers, who disapprove of Lottery by a 62-35 margin. Lottery enjoys strong approval across age groups.