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September 26 Statewide TvPoll for Oklahoma

The September 26 Oklahoma Statewide TvPoll for KWTV CBS-News 9 reveals contintuing strong job approval of President Bush and Governor Henry, and competitive statewide races down-ticket.  The statewide poll of voter approval on President Bush and Governor Henry and ballot test for the November general elections reveals broadbased approval of the job of the president and the governor.  It also indicates that, while Governor Henry is strongly favored in his general election matchup with Republican US Rep. Ernest Istook, many other statewide constitutional offices are highly competitive.

Executive Approval: despite a concerted radio campaign that is critical of the governor’s record on immigration issues by rep. Istook, Governor Henry still enjoys very high job approval among most Oklahoma voters.  Henry’s overall approval is 74.9%, and his “strongly approve” number is 42.7%, which is very high even for an incumbent governor.  The “strongly disapprove” number for Henry’s job performance is only 8.5%.

The national rebound of approval for President Bush is evident in Oklahoma too.  Bush’s overall job approval rating is 61.9% among Oklahoma voters, and his strong approval approaches 40%.  The Strong disapprove number is 24.9%, and is driven mainly by Democrats, independents, and very liberal voters.

Governor:  Brad Henry continues to show a very strong lead  over Ernest Istook, 55.5% to 33.3% with an 11.2  percent undecided.  Henry leads among men, women, all but the most conservative voters, and also commands about three in ten Republican votes in the ballot test.  Only the most frequent church-goers do not show solid majority support for a Henry candidacy for reelection.

Lt. Governor: This remains the highest-profile and most competitive race in Oklahoma.  Jari Askins and Todd Hiett remain in a statistical dead heat among likely voters, with Hiett enjoying an insignificant lead of less than one point.  The undecideds are more heavily among women and Democrats.  Independent E. Z. Million polls at 2.7%, and almost all of his support come from among men.

Attorney General: Incumbent Drew Edmondson enjoys a sizeable 50-29 lead over GOP challenger James Dunn.

State Labor Commissioner:  This contest is a rematch of four years ago, when Lloyd Fields was narrowly edged by three-term incumbent Reneau.  Reneau commands a sizeable lead, 50.5% to 28.2%, in what has been a low-profile race to date.

Insurance Commissioner: No state insurance commissioner has survived for two full terms in the last fifteen years, and the resignation of Democrat Carroll Fisher brought Kim Holland to the office.  The race, which has been low profile, is wide open.  Challenger Bill Case-R is polling 36.4% to Democrat Holland’s 32.7%.  The sizeable undecided indicates that the short campaign and partisan tendencies could determine this race, and also the race for state auditor (below).

State Auditor: Four years ago, Democrat Jeff McMahan edged our Republican Gary Jones by a couple of votes per box.  Now an incumbent, this low profile race appears to be competitive.  Jones is polling 36.3% -- roughly the same as Republican Bill Case for Insurance Commissioner – and incumbent McMahan trails at 32.8% -- roughly the same as Kim Holland.

State Treasurer:  Scott Meacham  (Democrat), appointed treasurer by Gov. Henry,  currently enjoys a nine-point lead over Republican challenger Howard Marnett, 43.1%-33.9%. This race too has a large undecided, though Meacham starts out in striking range of a majority and with strong ties to the popular incumbent governor. 

Photo ID: Nearly nine in ten Oklahomans who vote report having some form of photo identification, and nearly three in four report that a photo ID should be required to be able to vote in Oklahoma elections.  Opposition to the photo ID requirement is greatest among liberals, while conservatives and frequent church goers are more uniform in their support for a photo ID requirement.


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