The September 26 Oklahoma Statewide TvPoll for KWTV CBS-News 9
reveals contintuing strong job approval of President Bush and Governor Henry,
and competitive statewide races down-ticket. The
statewide poll of voter approval on President Bush and Governor Henry and
ballot test for the November general elections reveals broadbased approval of
the job of the president and the governor. It also indicates that, while
Governor Henry is strongly favored in his general election matchup with
Republican US Rep. Ernest Istook, many other
statewide constitutional offices are highly competitive.
Executive Approval:
despite a
concerted radio campaign that is critical of the governor’s record on
immigration issues by rep. Istook, Governor Henry still enjoys very high job
approval among most Oklahoma voters. Henry’s overall approval is 74.9%,
and his “strongly approve” number is 42.7%, which is very high even for an
incumbent governor. The “strongly disapprove” number for Henry’s job
performance is only 8.5%.
The national rebound
of approval for President Bush is evident in Oklahoma too. Bush’s overall job
approval rating is 61.9% among Oklahoma voters, and his strong
approval approaches 40%. The Strong disapprove number is 24.9%, and is
driven mainly by Democrats, independents, and very liberal voters.
Governor: Brad Henry continues to
show a very strong lead over Ernest Istook, 55.5% to 33.3% with an
11.2 percent undecided. Henry leads among men, women, all but the
most conservative voters, and also commands about three in ten Republican votes
in the ballot test. Only the most frequent church-goers do not show solid
majority support for a Henry candidacy for reelection.
Lt. Governor: This remains the
highest-profile and most competitive race in Oklahoma. Jari Askins and Todd
Hiett remain in a statistical dead heat among likely voters, with Hiett
enjoying an insignificant lead of less than one point. The undecideds are
more heavily among women and Democrats. Independent E. Z. Million polls
at 2.7%, and almost all of his support come from among men.
Attorney General: Incumbent Drew Edmondson
enjoys a sizeable 50-29 lead over GOP challenger James Dunn.
State Labor
Commissioner: This contest is a rematch of four years ago, when Lloyd Fields was
narrowly edged by three-term incumbent Reneau. Reneau commands a sizeable
lead, 50.5% to 28.2%, in what has been a low-profile race to date.
Insurance
Commissioner: No
state insurance commissioner has survived for two full terms in the last
fifteen years, and the resignation of Democrat Carroll Fisher brought Kim
Holland to the office. The race, which has been low profile, is wide
open. Challenger Bill Case-R is polling 36.4% to Democrat Holland’s
32.7%. The sizeable undecided indicates that the short campaign and partisan
tendencies could determine this race, and also the race for state auditor
(below).
State Auditor: Four years ago, Democrat Jeff
McMahan edged our Republican Gary Jones by a couple of votes per box. Now
an incumbent, this low profile race appears to be competitive. Jones is
polling 36.3% -- roughly the same as Republican Bill Case for Insurance
Commissioner – and incumbent McMahan trails at 32.8% -- roughly the same as Kim
Holland.
State
Treasurer: Scott Meacham (Democrat), appointed treasurer by Gov. Henry,
currently enjoys a nine-point lead over Republican challenger
Howard Marnett, 43.1%-33.9%. This race too has a large undecided, though
Meacham starts out in striking range of a majority and with strong ties to the
popular incumbent governor.
Photo ID: Nearly nine in ten Oklahomans
who vote report having some form of photo identification, and nearly three in
four report that a photo ID should be required to be able to vote in Oklahoma elections. Opposition to
the photo ID requirement is greatest among liberals, while conservatives and
frequent church goers are more uniform in their support for a photo ID
requirement.
Posted on
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
by Keith Gaddie