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Presidential Horse Race

A recent TvPoll.com study found very specific results explaining the difference in opinion among men and women on possible presidential primary outcomes. This poll also examined how each party would vote for candidates of both democratic and republican parties. The survey, conducted from January 19-20, has the responses of 765 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.54 points.

There were two questions, particularly, that dealt with the issue at hand. The first asked respondents, “If the Democratic Presidential primary in your state was held today, and you were standing in the voting booth and had to choose, for whom would you vote?” The options to choose from were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and Barack Obama. Thirty five per cent said they would vote for Clinton and Edwards trailed with 26%.

At the end of this instrument, respondents were also asked a series of demographic questions including gender and political party identification, among others. Of the males who participated, 28.8% claimed that they would vote for Clinton. The females paralleled these results. Twenty three per cent of these females claimed they would vote for Clinton as well. Clinton received the highest share of men and female voters in this study.

This study also compared how people of each political party responded to this question. Clinton seemed to come out as a clear winner in this comparison as well. She received the highest share of respondents who said they would for her if they were standing in a voting booth today. Thirty seven per cent of democrats, 21% of Republicans and 30% of Independents responded this way.

The second question of interest asked the same question but listed Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson as options to choose from. Slightly more females claimed they would vote for McCain than males, but McCain won over both groups of gender. Huckabee grabbed a large percentage of respondents favor through 30% with McCain shortly behind at 25%. Twenty eight per cent of males and 32% of females, however, claimed they would vote for McCain.

Huckabee seemed to be the favorite among all parties. Thirty per cent of both Democrats and Republicans and 24% of Independents claimed they would vote for Huckabee if they had to make a choice in a voting booth today.

Although these are not actual voting results, they do effectively help to forecast presidential primary results. There was less than a 4% difference in the way each gender would vote for either Clinton or McCain, but these candidates did appear to be favorites. As for differences in party identification, there was none…hardly. In a Democratic race, each party responded in favor of Clinton and in favor of Huckabee in a Republican race.

For exact results, please visit the link below.


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