CLINTON , HUCKABEE STILL LEAD OKLAHOMA PRIMARY PREFERENCES; HUCKABEE, MCCAIN DOMINATE DEMOCRATS IN TRIAL HEATS FOR NOVEMBER; SOONER STATE VOTERS WILLING TO CONSIDER INDEPENDENT ALTERNATIVES, SKEPTICAL ABOUT ECONOMY AND COURSE OF NATION

January 7 2008

Barack Obama may be leading Iowa and New Hampshire, but in Oklahoma the Democratic Primary fight continues to be Clinton and Edwards.  The former First Lady and New York Senator polls 33.8%support among Sooner State Democrats, while John Edwards is close behind at 28.5%.  The poll of Democratic Primary voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.12%.

Edwards enjoys across-the-board support among Democrats in the primary regardless of church attendance, while Clinton’s support is far stronger among casual church goers and falls off among frequent goers, though she still leads in that group.

A clear division exists between Democrats who are self-identified evangelical Christian.  A majority of Oklahoma voters and also a majority of Democratic primary voters are self-identified evangelicals.  Among these voters, Edwards enjoys a small lead over Clinton --31.3% to 28.1% with Obama a distant third at 14.3%.  Among non-evangelicals, Clinton clearly leads with 37.5%, followed by Edwards at 26.8% and Obama at 20.1%.

In Oklahoma, conservatives and moderates and liberals disagree on who they want as the Democratic nominee.  Self-identified liberals are 20.5%of all likely Democratic voters, and they prefer Hillary Clinton by a 51.5% to 27.0%margin over Sen. Edwards, with Sen. Obama a distant third at 13.5%.  Moderates (45.0% of Democratic voters) preferred Clinton (38.2%) over Edwards (29.0%) and Obama (19.9%).  Among Conservative Democrats, undecideds prevail at 35.3%, followed by Edwards with 29.5% and Clinton and Obama are tied at 13.4%.

There is a slight advantage for Hillary Clinton among women voters, but it is not overwhelming.  Women who will likely vote in the Democratic primary preferred Clinton (36.2%) over Edwards (27.9%) and Obama (16.4%).  Clinton (30.4%) and Edwards (29.5%) are statistically-tied for first among male Democrats, followed by Obama (16.3%).

Hillary Clinton leads John Edwards across-the-board in terms of support from voters based on their education, while Obama’s support climbs from just 9.1%among high school-educated Oklahoma Democrats to 19.4%among college graduates and 25.3% among those with postgraduate education – doctors, lawyers, and PhDs. Obama is in statistical tie for first among the best-educated Oklahoma Democrats.

Hillary Clinton leads among Oklahoma Democrats across four income categories and enjoys her strongest leads among those making less than $25,000/year (41.2%, +7.3 over Edwards) and those making more than $200,000/ year (35.8%, +7.7 over Obama).  Edwards is strongest among those making under $25,000/year (33.9%) but enjoys his largest lead over Clinton among those earning between $50,000 and $75,000 year (31.9%, +6.4).

Unlike most of the polls we have seen in other states, Barack Obama does not enjoy a lead among young Democrats in Oklahoma.  Clinton is the solid favorite of poll respondents under 35, at 40,0%, followed by undecided (20.0%), Edwards (18.0%), and Obama (16.0%).  Edwards is statistically-tied with Clinton among voters between 35-49 (30.3% Clinton, 26.1% Edwards) and 50-64 (32.9% Edwards, 32.1% Clinton) and trails somewhat among the eldest voters (Clinton 35.8%, Edwards 28.7%).  Obama trails across age groups, but is strongest with the 35-49 crowd (21.8%).

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee has opened up a substantial lead in the Republican primary. The former Arkansas Governor polls 39.2% of the vote among likely Republican primary voters, with Arizona Senator John McCain a distant second at 18.0%.  The poll of Republican primary voters has a margin of error of +/-3.42%.

Gov. Huckabee is running especially strong among the core voters of the state GOP, those who are frequent church goers or who self-identify as evangelical Christians.  Huckabee has a commanding 45.3% among those who go to church once a week or more, followed by John McCain at 14.7%. Among self-identified Evangelical Christians, Huckabee is at 48.0%, followed by McCain at 16.1% and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson at 16.1%.

Among non-evangelicals, Huckabee falls to 22.6% and a tie with McCain (also at 22.6%) followed by Romney (16.2%) and Giuliani (14.0%).  Evangelical voters make up two-thirds of the GOP primary electorate in Oklahoma. Huckabee clearly leads among conservative Republicans, 44.5% to 12.9% for McCain and 11.8% for Thompson.

Huckabee and McCain are statistically-tied among moderates (30.5% to 27.7%).

Among women voters, Gov. Huckabee leads 43.0% to 17.1% for Sen. McCain, while among men, the lead is still there but slightly smaller,  at 35.5%Huckabee, 18.7% McCain. The former Arkansas governor also leads across educational groups at consistent levels, though McCain runs best among those with postgraduate education. Among income groups, Huckabee again leads by consistent margins across the board, but is strongest among Republicans making less than $25,000/year (44.2%), while McCain draws his strongest support (20.1%) among those making over $100,000/year.

Huckabee is weakest among Republicans under the age of 35, drawing 29.4%support to 19.1% support for Rudy Giuliani; Huckabee is strongest  among voters between 35-49 (41.4%) and 50-64 (40.9%) while McCain runs second among elder voters (20.6%, 16 points behind Huckabee).

In addition to the presidential primary responses, 1,911 Oklahoma voters statewide were surveyed about their preferences in November in four trial heats and also on their preferences for president.  There are 1,835 valid responses to the survey, for a margin of error on the statewide questions of all voters of +/-2.29%. Of the survey respondents, 52.1% were Democrats, 40.5% were Republicans, 7.4% were independents. Four presidential trial heat numbers were tested: Clinton-McCain, Clinton-Huckabee, Obama-McCain, Obama-Huckabee. The trial heat numbers show both Huckabee and McCain winning the Sooner State by comfortable margins: 

                                        Clinton                 Obama

Huckabee                       64.7-29.8            65.3-26.8

McCain                          66.9-28.4            67.8-25.2

Oklahoma Voters were also asked about their willingness to consider an independent candidate for President.  Out of all voters, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike, 46.0% said yes, they would consider an independent candidate for President, while 40.9% said they would not.  Willingness to consider an independent was greatest among those with a college degree (51.1%), middle income earners making $50-75K a year (54.0%), and those voters under 35 (55.7%).

President Bush has recovered majority job approval in the Sooner State, at 54.5% saying they either strongly or somewhat approve of his job in office.  The President’s approval is strongest among church-goers, evangelicals, Republicans, and conservatives, and weakest among non-church-goers, nonevangelicals, Democrats, and liberals and moderates, and young voters.

Only 27.9% of Oklahoma voters think the country is headed in the right direction, while 56.8% say we are going the wrong way.   Slightly more conservatives believe we are going in the right direction (41.9%) than in the wrong direction (40.2%) while over 80% of liberals and 69% of moderates say the nation is headed the wrong direction.

Women (23.2%) are less likely than men (33.6%) to think we are headed the right way,  and solid majorities of men (55.2%) and women (58.2%) think we are headed the wrong direction as a nation. 

Concern that we are headed in the wrong direction exists across economic groups, but it is most intense among those making less than $75,000/year.

The degree of confidence in the US economy is similarly low among Oklahoma voters.  29.8% have confidence in the economy, compared to 56.9%who do not.  Economic skepticism is greater among non-church-goers and non evangelicals.

More conservatives have confidence in the economy (43.8%) than do not (39.9%), while liberals (81.1%) and moderates (68.9%) are overwhelming in their lack of confidence.  

Men (37.0%) are more likely to have confidence in the economy than women (23.8%) though both men and women are skeptical about the economy. 

Confidence in the economy is weakest among Oklahomans making under $25,000/year (21.9%), greatest among those making $75-100,000/year (38.4%).  But, every earning group including top earners is skeptical about the US economy.